Perceptions Aren't Always Reality

The St. Louis Cardinals will soon be champions of the National League Central Division. Yet it is amazing how many people think they are always the team the Astros have to overcome to win. It is true the Cards have won or been the wild card seven of the last ten seasons, but how many forget the recent past.

How many remember that the Cardinals did not make the post season in either 2007 or 2008? Neither did the Astros, of course, but the Cards have not had recent dominance. As a matter of fact their most dominant season was 2004 when then won 105 games and reached the World Series, but lost in four straight to the Red Sox. They won the World Series in 2006 when they actually were starting a mini slide. They only won 83 regular season games, but worked their way through the post season and took the big prize.

Then, they didn't make the post season for two years.

When this season began the Cardinals were most folks choices for no better than third. Certainly they were picked behind the Cubs and in some circles behind the Brewers and maybe even the Reds. When Chris Carpenter made good his comeback from injuries and surgery and Adam Wainwright developed into a Cy Young candidate starter plus the in season acquisitions of Todd Holliday, Julio Lugo and Mark DeRosa solidified the daily lineup the Cards were back.

Without all of that happening this team would have been right where they were picked in the pre season. Well, perhaps I need to amend that. They might have been in the race anyway based on the disappointing season turned in by the Cubs and Brewers, but they certainly wouldn't have been the class of the division as they are now.

The Astros, sadly, are right about where most prognosticators thought they would be. And they are there for most of the reasons expected. An older team with players coming back from injury has only a chance if everything goes right. The older a club is, the chances for everything going right is greatly reduced.

That is exactly what happened. I'm not even including the off seasons by Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt.

So, let us look ahead. Can the Astros compete again in 2010? Absolutely, they can. That is what baseball is like in this era. An offseason roster change or two or three, a pitcher that comes out of no where to succeed, a young player that performs better on the big stage that could have been expected based on minor league work and a team turns from mediocre to good.

The right leadership is paramount. Hiring the right manager and coaching staff is crucial to not only the return of the Astros to .500 and contender status in 2010, but the long range plan as well.

Tony LaRussa has had down seasons...both 2007 and 2008 would qualify. He was able to get through them, deal with the financial restraints placed upon him by management, keep the confidence of the veteran players and respect of the young ones and now in 2009 has a chance to win another World Series.

Whoever Ed Wade hires to be the next Astro manager must have the characteristics that could allow him to hold the job for a long time. Larry Dierker's five seasons in the longest any skipper has been on the job with the Astros since 1997. The Astros have had some decent and/or good teams during that 12 years, too. Four (five if you count Dave Clark) managers in 12 years. That is an awful track record. Ed Wade has to find the man who ownership and management can be confident can handle the job through the ups and downs for a lot longer than two or three or even five years.