Keep Fingers Crossed for Astro Improvement in 2012

With Rest of Division in Transition Astros Could Have Better Results than 2011

A few days ago I wrote a column with a projected Astro lineup and basic roster for 2012 based on the personnel currently available. I was quick to point out the educated “guesses” were no more than that since it was unlikely the players to choose from will all be available by the end of spring training. The Astros are in a remodeling mode. Anyone who had done any home remodeling knows that sometimes paint colors or furniture choice changes need to be made during the process.


While the same applies to all teams, taking a quick look at the clubs the Astros will have to compete against in their final season in the National League Central can be encouraging. The Astros can be considerably better than they were in 2011 even if they don’t become a full season contender.


For one thing, the 56-106 record of 2011 was the worst case scenario. The club was not good, but it really wasn’t that bad. Perhaps as many as ten to 15 losses didn’t have to turn out that way for various reasons from fluke plays, to bloop hits, to blown leads to maybe even a few questionable decisions.


There is no question with the number of young first or second year players the Astros will likely field in 2012 and few established successful major leaguers it is possible the club will wind up with a legitimate 100 loss team. On the other hand, it is also possible that those young players are the real deal and their talent will blossom taking the club on an upward spiral.


While fans want J.D. Martinez to hit a solid .280 or better with power and Jose Altuve to prove to be a real .300+ hitter no one can realistically expect those numbers. They can hope for them and perhaps in time will be both of their norms. Can the norm be reached in 2012? I am not going into a player by player exam here, only to make the point that for improvement in the club all the youngsters must peform and there is no track record for them yet.


The same applies to a number of the live arms the Astros will have competing for spots in the rotation and on the staff. In nearly every case consistency of command is what takes time to develop. It is the difference between the potential shown in the minor leagues and major league success. Remember the definition of potential in sports? Potential means you haven’t done it yet.


The Astros are not going through this process alone in 2012. The Chicago Cubs admit they are going through a “complete and total rebuild.” The Pirates are in year two of their rebuild under Clint Hurdle which got off to a good start last year then faded. The Reds seem determined to make it back to the top in 2012 with the addition of pitchers Mat Latos and Sean Marshall at the expense of several of their top minor league prospects. The Brewers are in real limbo with the loss of Prince Fielder (to someone, someday) and the possible suspension of left fielder Ryan Braun for a PED test that detected abnormally high testosterone. They have acquired an older third baseman in Aramis Ramirez and a potential Japanese import in high average, but low power hitting outfielder Norichiko Aoki. The pitching staff is good, but not one to knock your socks off with hard throwing power stuff.


Then there is the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright will be back to pitch. Chris Carpenter is still one of the best around. Jaime Garcia returns. That is pretty good start. Then they have signed Carlos Beltran to play the outfield for a couple seasons and still have Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday. You will note those names have some ages that add up to some higher numbers. The club has very little team speed. They do not have Albert Pujols..or manager Tony LaRussa.


Early forecast for the NLC: Cards, Reds, Brewers at the top with the Cubs, Astros and Pirates in the next group. Any of the top three could win. Any of the next group could finish 4th…or 6th.


So, on this day after Christmas that is how it looks to me. I will check back with you more than once before the start of the season. There are still a number of moves to be made that could change the face of the division.


As for the Astros debut in the AL West in 2013? Let’s hold on that. The Rangers and Angels are both getting big TV dollars from Fox and have been spending it. The A’s are apparently going into a better financial situation moving to San Jose in a year or so and the Mariners are one of the last teams in the hunt for Prince Fielder. These Astro young players had better turn out to have some stars among their number. The 2012 season will give them a chance to show what they have. Keep your fingers crossed.