SABR Day in America Big Hit in Houston

On Saturday Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) chapters all over the country held meetings on the same day.  Houston had one of the more impressive presentions thanks to both location and panel members.  The Fingers Furniture store on the sight of old Buff Stadium--inside their sports museum-- was the site.  The featured guests included oldest living Hall of Famer, Monte Irvin, a Houston resident, the Toy Cannon, Jimmy Wynn, and Mr. Astro- Larry Dierker.  Dave Raymond of Astros radio and yours truly offered some words.  Also on hand were three or four baseball book authors with some of their work.

More than fifty SABR members and guests were inside the museum for the two hour get together. 
http://vimeo.com/19340516

NL Central Preview #4 Can the Reds Repeat?

The Cincinnati Reds are the defending champions of the National League Central.  Will that have any bearing on what they do in 2011?   The spring training preview is attached.

http://www.foxsportshouston.com/pages/lucas_blog

Percentages Swayed by Timing and Location of Polls

Although I have always been a baseball first sports fan I will admit that the number one followed sport in the country at this time is pro (NFL) football.  There are a lot of reasons for this and I won't try to analyze them here, just admit that it is true. 

However, I do have problems with any poll that is taken in the heart of ANY season.  The numbers will always be skewed.  And while the Harris Polling folks are experienced I also think where polls are taken and which people will bother taking time to answer inquiries are factors.

This is not about NFL football being listed as the favorite sport by 31% of those polled and baseball only good for second place at 17%.  During the heyday of steroids and the home run record breaking years of McGwire, Sosa and Bonds the same poll taken in mid summer would have been much closer if not different in order.   Let us admit it.  People are very fickle.

But, again, my complaint is not with who is #1or #2..or even #3 (college football.)  It is more with the very surprisingly low totals of some other sports.  Men's college basketball is listed as the favorite sport of only 4% of those polled.  That equalled men's soccer and was one percent lower than hockey.  Either that means college basketball is highly over-rated or the poll has holes.  What do you suppose the ranking would be in March during the NCAA tournament if the poll had been conducted then?

Golf and bowling tied at 2%.  This poll did not ask what was the favorite sport to watch on TV or read about, just favorite sport.  That 2% was the same as for track and field which is rarely even seen on television and thus is far harder to follow.

A poll that would have much more interest for me would ask: "In order what sports do you follow?"  Using myself as an example--and the instructions would ask the participants to rank in order-- I would list Baseball, NFL football (Texans essentially, not the league in general), College basketball (local and B12 teams), NBA basketball (Rockets, but not league), College Baseball (local plus B12), College football (local, some B12), Men's Soccer (Dynamo results), Golf (aware of names of some top players), Tennis (M&W), --and that is about it.  Once I get past college football the sports are extremely erratic in my loyalty.

I grew up in central Indiana and attended the Indy 500 twice, but have no interest in auto racing of any kind.  I am not a track and field follower, nor a bowling fan.  I actually would LOVE to follow the NHL, but there is no point living here in Houston.  I am one of those who needs a local major league team to really get involved.  I worked in Buffalo for two years earlier in my career and covered every Sabres home game.  Other than one Dallas Stars and two or three Houston Aeros games I have not been to a hockey game since those days and I do not follow the happenings in the league at all.  The only exception is I am hooked on the annual outdoor game on January 1st that NBC televises.

All that is just me.  Obviously NFL football would score well even for this baseball first guy.  But my profile would be far more complete than only asking what my favorite sport was right in the middle of one of the seasons.

Wandy for Three-perfect!

The Astros signed Wandy Rodriguez to a three year contract on Tuesday.  In my way of thinking that was perfect.  I am not getting into money since that is up to the club.  If they want to pay $34-million (or more) that is their business.  I am thinking more of the length of the pact.

Three years give Rodriguez some security, but it does not tie the Astros hands if an unforseen injury or degradation in Wandy's skills should occur before the contract has expired.  Pitching is the most important single feature of winning baseball teams.  Unfortunately, due to the stress on the arm, pitcher's are also the most fragile and capable of being good one inning and injured irreparably the next.

Clubs that sign pitchers to contracts longer than three years--especially those who have been pitching awhile--are taking a major risk.  A three year contract for a 32 year old six year major league veteran is just right.  When it expires he likely will be in the "year to year" point in his career.  The Astros won't be on the hook,  but Wandy will have made a lot of money before that point.

The Astros staff has a very good makeup.  Brett Myers is signed for two more with an option.   Rodriguez now for three more.  J.A. Happ won't be arbitration eligible till next year and free agent eligible in 2015, Bud Norris is under club control for several years and whoever is finally the #5 starter will either be a year to year guy like Nelson Figueroa or another young pitcher under club control for multiple years.

That is a good workable unit.  Ed Wade has manuervability while still also having a solid group.

One item for today (Wednesday).  Former Astro Morgan Ensberg will be co-hosting the 7pm show on the Baseball channell of XM/Sirius radio tonight.  As Morgan points out on his web site it is really an audition to see if he can join the roster on the network.  If you have satellite radio tune in...and maybe give Morgan a call.  He has done some analyst work on TV on the West Coast and for ESPN college games.  There have been good reports on his work.  See what you think tonight.

NL Central #3--Milwaukee Brewers before camp

The Brewers appear to be ready to go for broke in 2011.  Two pitching additions, a new shortstop and a big time contract for Prince Fielder are showing the intent.  I think they must might get it done, too.

http://www.foxsportshouston.com/pages/lucas_blog

Every Season lasts too long, but outdoor football now???

I will lay it on the line up front.  I am a baseball fan first and foremost.  But I like to watch football and basketball is my second favorite sport.  ALL the seasons last too long in this era, but football outdoors in January and a Super Bowl in February is carrying it too far.  Only the NBA in June is worse.

Part TWO-- NLC Previews-- the Chicago Cubs for 2011

Will the Cubs be better...or just the Cubs in 2011?  My thoughts from the http://www.foxsports.com/ web site at:   http://www.foxsportshouston.com/pages/lucas_blog.

The Pirates in 2011: First of a Six Part Series

A pre spring training look at the six teams in the Astro's National League Central Division starts here:

http://foxsportshouston.com/pages/lucas_blog

Horns Crush Ags but a Rematch Remains

Sort of a no doubter on Wednesday night at Texas cruised past Texas A&M 81-60 in men's basketball at the Erwin Center.  But they will play again. 

Are We Too Isolated in Texas?

On Monday night the Kansas Jayhawks played the Baylor Bears in men's basketball in Waco.  Although the Bears had a solid record and a talented team, the game was not even close.  Kansas rolled to a twenty point win after taking a 21 point advantage at the half.  A new Baylor record home crowd of over 10,500 was on hand at the Ferrell Center for the mis match.

Kansas has a very good team to be sure.  But most of us who have covered college basketball in Texas thought Baylor was among the top 25 teams in the country.  We also have high regard for Texas and Texas A&M.  After Monday night I am not so sure we don't do too much "in state" thinking and have a hard time with the big picture.

Nebraska is leaving the Big 12 in part because they felt the inclusion of the Texas schools shifted the power balance.  Politically that may have been true since the HQ moved from Kansas City to Dallas and four of the twelve schools are based in Texas.   But it may be overstating the case when one considers the athletic balance.  Sure, Texas and Texas A&M will always be challengers in the major sports.  Baylor is #1 in the nation in women's basketball and (until Monday night) one of the stronger teams in the men's game as well.
But let us Texas residents not forget who plays very well outside the borders of this big state.

Kansas is good enough to contend for a national title again. They have already won three times. Kansas State is rock solid, too.  Oklahoma State has also won two national basketball titles.  Nebraska with seven  and Oklahoma with five  have won national football championships.

In fact in the two major college sports--football and basketball--there are more national honors for the non-Texan schools than for the four inside the borders. Texas has four national championships in football and Texas A&M one.  Texas El Paso of Conference USA (then Texas Western) is still the only men's basketball team in Texas to have a NCAA championship banner.

This is not to denigrate all that the schools in Texas try to do or have done in the past.  It is simply to point out that perhaps our emphasis on what goes on inside the borders needs to be broadened.  These other schools and teams in other states are pretty good.  Beating a Texas based school is not always an upset.
College sports is a nation-wide passion.  There are lots of very good and often even better teams that don't play with Austin as their capital.  Kansas certainly showed Baylor that with emphasis on Monday.

Keppinger Won't be Traded.. Could be Good for 2011

With surgery to repair Jeff Keppinger's injured foot that means Kep won't be traded this off season after all.  While no one wants to have to undergo and rehab from surgery the fact that Jeff needed it took him out of the trade market and the Astros will most likely have to carry him and his arbitration elevated salary through 2011.  That might not be a bad thing actually.

http://vimeo.com/18596214

Keppinger Surgery Likely Ends Astro Off Season Moves

News that Astro infielder Jeff Keppinger will undergoe foot surgery and will likely be sidelined for three to four months which would include at least a month of the upcoming season may signal the end of significant off season moves by the Astros.

Keppinger, once the Astros acquired Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, was headed back to a utility role or, based on his expected salary winnings in arbitration, to another club in a trade.  Now, as an injured player he won't be going anywhere. 

That may not be a bad thing if he recovers completely and there is reason to give him more playing time once he is ready due to injury or poor play by either Barmes or Hall.  Having an experienced vet to fill in is certainly better than being forced to use less experienced journeymen.

The back up infielder roles will almost certainly be filled by players in that category to start the season.  Fans liked what they saw of Angel Sanchez in 2010 and he would seem to be a lock for one of the jobs.  Matt Downs, with a bit more experience and more time at the corner positions would seem to have an edge for the other slot.  Spring training competition will make all final determinations.

One player who may join the Astro list of opening day starters one year to non factors the next could be Tommy Manzella.  He may be the best defensively of anyone who would play shortstop, but he does not have enough experience playing other positions to be a utility infielder.  And his lack of hitting would likely be even more evident with sporadic play.  Best bet for Tommy is to be the opening day shortstop at Oklahoma City with the prime focus to develop into a better offensive player.  If he can pull that off he still has a chance to make it.

With Keppinger no longer a potential trade candidate the Astros are left with some middle relievers or starter Wandy Rodriguez as candidates to move on in deals.  In Wandy's case it would be a gamble and would require GM Ed Wade to require a significant return.  Rodriguez has one more year before he can declare free agency.  Based on his career path it would be unlikley the Astros would enter in any bidding for Wandy unless he has a career season in 2011.  Should that happen, of course, the Astros would likely be in a pennant and/or wild card race and opinions could change. 

The decision that must be made now, however, is should the club entertain offers for Wandy to be sure to receive something in return or should they hold on to him so they won't have another hole in the starting rotation for 2011?   Since Wandy is under club control for 2011 the decision is in Ed Wade's hands.

Time to Hoop it Up!

Now that the new year has dawned it is finally time to start taking a closer look at what is going on in college basketball.  In the state of Texas three schools are ranked in the top 25, but none in the top ten.  This is a factor of less than powerful non conference schedules or lack of enough success in some of those out of league games.

Texas A&M has only lost once and had a victory over a team ranked in the top 25 at the time.  But the rest of the schedule has been mostly unimpressive.  They have also played a preponderance of home games.  That is really the only reason they are ranked as low as they are at 18.  Texas is the highest ranked at #13 and they do have a road win against North Carolina.  But, they too, have had a number of almost walkover games so far.

Baylor, ranked #23 in one poll has the worst record at 8-3, but has also played the toughest slate of games.  They are on a two game losing streak--both at the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu--to Washington State and Florida State.  All three of the schools mentioned will play major parts in the Big 12 race and all three are likely going to be NCAA post season tourney teams.

So will Kansas, of course.  The Jayhawks are ranked #3 in the nation.  Missouri and Kansas State are also top 20 teams from the league.  It may be interesting to note the transition to a basketball league in the Big 12.  Neither of the two teams departing, Colorado or Nebraska, are top 20 hoops teams.  That makes six of the remaining ten highly regarded basketball programs nationally.  And while neither Oklahoma nor Oklahoma State are currently top 20 clubs don't count either of them out.

Among the programs in state who are not among the top ones right now but have great potential are Texas Tech of the Big 12, Houston and UTEP of Confence USA and soon to be WAC schools UTSA and Texas State.  TCU is also in that group...or better be.. if they want to compete in the basketball heavy Big East where they will soon be matriculating.

Texas may remain a football first state for decades to come.  But the splitting of the various schools into different major conferences--some of whom place basketball on a higher pedestal--can do nothing but elevate the sport/.  And that is not a bad thing at all.