College Baseball Front and Center This Weekend

Starting Friday at Minute Maid Park six of the strongest teams in college baseball will take the field to play three games each as they prep for their conference seasons.


The number includes representatives from the Big 12  (Texas and Texas Tech), Conference USA (Houston and Rice) and the SEC (Arkansas and Tennessee).  Three of the six are highly ranked and two others have outstanding records.

Arkansas is ranked highest by Baseball America at number four.  They entered the week with a 7-1 record.  Number five Rice is unbeaten after its first nine games.  Number 21 Texas is off to an uncommonly slow start and the only team currently under .500, but could come around this weekend.  Tennessee was unbeaten after seven games.  Texas Tech was 7-1 and Houston was running at .500.

This will be the 12th annual event hosted by the Astros and sponsored this year by Ticketmaster.  In the past future national championship teams and top professional draft picks have highligted the field.  Rice and Houston have played in all 12 series.  Texas and Texas A&M have traditionally alternated appearances with other Texas based Big 12 teams appearing alternately as well.

The first year the Classic was held it honored the baseball playing teams of the old Southwest Conference with an eight team field.  Since then it has been reduced to six with invitations granted to at least two out of state schools.

The tournament gives the teams an opportunity to make a road trip with games guaranteed thanks to the retractable roof at Minute Maid Park.  Plus the players have a chance to play on a real major league field and before much larger crowds than usual.

Astro season ticket holders are eligible for discounted tickets but the full passes are only $30 for adults for a total of nine games over three days.  Children can get a full session pass for only $15.

If fans can't make it into Houston the games will be available by television and/or online.  Check local listings for availability by market.

With the later start of the college season and major league teams already in spring training the event has lost some of its lustre when it was played in the heart of winter in early February.  But it still is a good way to get the baseball juices flowing again with some very good competition.

First Surprise from Astro Camp--Myers to Closer!

Myers From Starter to Closer with Astros in 2012

When the word came out from Kissimmee Tuesday morning that Astro pitcher Brett Myers would move from last year’s opening day starter to this season’s closer a lot of speculation was unleashed.


Why is the move being made? Could it mean that Brandon Lyon is not sufficiently healed from his surgery of last season? Could it be a way to make Myers more valuable as a future trade pawn? Could it just be a way to open a spot in the rotation for non-roster veteran Livan Hernandez who is already being afforded elevated status as the first exhibition game starter?


Or could it just be that Myers is the best choice for the job?

It was not a spur of the moment decision. According to Myers he had been called at home about three weeks ago to be asked if he would make the move. “I told them I’d think about it. I had to think about it to see if I could do it since I haven’t closed in five years. I feel like I can do it. They told me it is probably best for the team, so I was all for that. I enjoy the chance to play every day. Every time that phone rings, it could be you. It’s a different mindset. As a starter you try to go 6-7 innings. As a closer, you need to get three outs.”


Manager Brad Mills said GM Jeff Luhnow brought the idea to him originally. After discussing it for a couple of days Mills agreed that if Myers was OK with it, making the change could be a good one.


Myers was much less effective as a starter in 2011 than he had been in 2010 when all but one of his starts lasted at least six innings and he was 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Last year his record fell to 7-14 and his ERA ballooned to 4.46. It seemed to take Myers time to get into a groove. He often had rough starts. According to stats dug up by the Houston Chronicle’s Stephen Campbell, Myers was quite ineffective with his first 25 pitches. A batting average of .350 with .382 on base and .571 slugging percentages might cause some concern as he now moves into a role in which his first 25 pitches are more important.


However, too much can be read into those numbers. The job of a starter and closer are different. Myers as a starter was far more concerned with longevity on the mound than immediate success. Perhaps the loss of two or three miles per hour off his average fast ball was a problem and the same pattern he has used in 2010 just didn’t work. In many of his starts his fast ball was well under his 88.4 norm in the first or second innings, but got up to that average and a bit more as the game progressed.

Now, Myers will not be trying to save anything—except the game—when he takes the mound. His job will be to get three outs and nothing more. If he can pitch at 90 with the FB to go with his good breaking balls he will be fine.


Remember, he HAS done it before. In 2007 with the Phillies he moved from the rotation to the pen early in the season and was effective. He saved 21 of 24 games while registering a 2.87 closer ERA. In 38 of 48 relief appearances he was unscored upon.


One caveat goes back to that fastball. In 2007 he had up to four more miles per hour on his average fast ball than he showed last year. Hopefully the return to the pen and objective of going one inning will result in the return of some of that velocity.

Moving Myers to the pen would seem to mean that Brandon Lyon is not deemed ready to return to the closers role. He saved 20 games for the Astros in 2010 before arm miseries began which led to surgery last summer. Of course, if Lyon does come back that could make Myers trade bait by mid season if he is effective.


Being able to start and/or relieve is a pretty valuable skill. Meyers would have it if one of the mid season contenders needs another arm and the Astros are not in a race.

Defending Champs both Edged Out at C-USA Indoor Track

Cougars fall one point short in C-USA Men’s Indoor Track and Field

The fact that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane moved from the second place finish they had in 2011 to first place in 2012 was a surprise even to their head coach.  In the  Conference USA indoor meet staged at the new Birmingham Crossplex  coach Steve Gulley admitted to FSN’s Jeremy Bloom he had been hoping for another second.  The Cougars looked too tough to overcome.  Not only had they won in 2011, but had dominated the league.  Houston had won twelve men’s indoor titles in sixteen years.  They would not win a 17^th in 2012.

Houston had a huge 30 point lead with two events to run, but lack of talent and depth in the long distance game—one of Tulsa’s strong points—did them in.  In the 3000 meter run Houston did not score a point.  Tulsa scored 34 and the lead changed hands.

Houston was favored to win the last event—the men’s 4x400 relay.  Had they done it and Tulsa finished no higher than third it would have been another Houston victory.

For three quarters of the relay things were looking good for Houston.  The Cougars were well in front with Tulsa running fourth behind both UTEP and East Carolina.

Then came the final leg.  Houston freshman Anthony Coleman could not hold the lead, being edged by UTEPs Curtis Kock at the finish, while Tulsa’s Julian Frazier had a strong finish and moved Tulsa into third.  With UTEPs win in a conference indoor meet record 3:11.64, Houston second and Tulsa third, a new champion was guaranteed.

For Tulsa it was the Golden Hurricane’s first C-USA men’s title.  For Houston is was their last chance to win another one.  They move to the Big East Conference next year.  Still, 12 men’s titles in 17 years is impressive.

Ladies Have First Time Winner, Too

A first time winner on the ladies side as well.  East Carolina rallied to knock off the women’s defending champs from the University of Central Florida.  They also clinched it by winning the 4x400 relay with UCF second.  But the real turning point was one event earlier as it was for Tulsa on the men’s side. Brittany Copeland won the 3000 meters and  the ten points she earned pushed East Carolina ahead of  UCF for the first time.  Like the Houston men, UCF’s women did not score a point in the event. 

So the defending champions Houston and UCF both lost out in the 3000 meters when they did not score a point to lose leads heading down the stretch.  Tulsa and East Carolina had the depth (Tulsa) and skill (Brittany Copeland, East Carolina) to get the points they needed.

The Conference USA men’s and women’s indoor track and field meet will seen on FSN affiliates and other outlets as early as next Friday.  Check your local listings.

If you join Lara Overton, Jeremy Bloom and me for the telecast you will be witnessing a number of conference record setting times and multiple winners.  You will also be seeing, perhaps for the first time, some names you may be hearing more of in future national competitions and maybe even the Olympics.

Similarities with Rockets and Astros are Evident

Are the Astros and Rockets the Same Team in Different Sports?

The Houston Astros will begin the 2012 baseball season with a number of players in the lineup that fans who gave up on the team midway through 2011 won’t know. The Houston Rockets are playing the 2011-2012 season in the NBA with a roster filled with little known or mysterious names to casual local sports fans.


The Rockets don’t have any players in the NBA All Star game. That may not be a bad thing. The team reached six games over .500 for the first time in three seasons when they beat the 76ers on Wednesday. Coach Kevin McHale has his club playing as a team bereft of super star players. Sure, Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola have veteran status. None of them are super stars that need to have each game revolve around them. McHale has used his bench and has broken away from the standard substitution patterns most teams follow.


How does this apply to the Astros? Like the Rockets, the Astros will not likely have any all stars (other than the required representative) on the NL team this summer. Like the Rockets, not much is expected from the team this season. GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters in Florida a couple days back that his expectation is higher than most of the media. He did not go so far as to expect contention from the 2012 team, but that it would have a better record than last year and could surprise a lot of folks.


If that happens we would have another valid comparison with their basketball buddies. The Rockets are playing much better than expected. They look like a genuine playoff team that has the capability of beating almost anyone in a given game. Will the Astros be able to do the same?


Competition for playing time with the Astros mirrors what is going on with the Rockets. As spring training begins it would appear that other than catcher and third base most spots are solid. But are they? Jason Castro would appear to be the primary catcher, but he must prove his physical health and then win the job. Chris Johnson may have the early edge at third base, but will face competition from Jimmy Paredes and perhaps Brett Wallace. Brian Bogusevic won the hearts of a lot of Astro fans last season in right field. But he faces stiff challenges from Jack Cust, Fernando Martinez and others. Jordan Schaffer may have the edge in center field. But what about Jason Bourgeois? In left field J.D. Martinez is the leader, but he, too could be beaten out. In short, the Astros have almost the same situation as the Rockets. Players will face real competition and, other than Carlos Lee at first base, do not have a position guaranteed by virtue of a large contract. As for the pitchers only Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and Bud Norris have spots wrapped up it would seem. Wandy and Brett thanks to the investment in them and Bud thanks to his arm strength and potential. Roster spots and playing time is up for grabs just as it is with the Rockets.


Another future comparison with the two teams as the Astros continue to build their minor league system is that there will be players that don’t make the team that wind up being key cogs with others. Rocket fans know all too well that Jeremy Lin of the Knicks did not make it through training camp. They also note that Jeremy’s teammate Steve Novak has been doing some successful long range shooting for New York. Then there is Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks who are performing at high levels in the NBA, but no longer in Rocket uniforms.


If the Astros are successful in their building plan fans may bemoan some baseball players with other teams that passed through the Astros as young unproven players and became stars elsewhere. Pitchers Mike Cuellar and Curt Schilling are two notables out of several from years past.  If the system is built to the level desired that may be more frequent. It is not a bad thing. That is the price of building a deep system. You can’t keep everyone and judgments must be made. Sometimes the player that gets away is still worth it because of what he brought in return. The jury is still out on the Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn deals of last season. There is no question the Astros got some top prospects in return. If a few of them turn out to be productive or even better players that trade will be positive even if Pence and Bourn are all stars.


Although Lin was not really traded from the Rockets—he just failed to make the team— and there was no room for him, many Rocket fans still bemoan him as “one that got away.” Yet, the 2011-12 team without him is doing quite well anyway. The Astros and their fans hope for the same after this spring when a number of the 63 plus in camp have to be trimmed—some of whom will no doubt catch on elsewhere and may even develop into stars.

Spring Training in Indiana? It Happened and in More Unusual Places, too!

Florida and Arizona Have Not Always Been Spring Training Centers

While all thirty major league baseball teams currently train in either Arizona or Florida that was certainly not always the case. As recently as 1992 the Angels trained in Palm Springs, California, but since then everyone has stayed in either Florida or Arizona.


The latest trend has more teams leaving Florida for Arizona. For years there were twice as many clubs in Florida. Now the difference is down to four.


Earlier this week I wrote of the many Texas cities that once hosted major league teams in the spring. Marlin Springs hosted the Giants for eleven years and San Antonio had several teams train over the years. A total of 33 camps were held in the Alamo city, most of any Texas town. Only the Cubs and Dodgers never trained in Texas.


This state was hardly the only one other than Arizona and Florida to welcome the major leaguers. During the World War II years when travel was restricted there were some unusual choices. Most clubs found the closest locations to their home cities that had gyms or field houses for indoor work.


The Braves, then based in Boston, trained in Wallingford, CT in 1943 and 1944 and in Washington, DC the next year. The Cubs went down to Larry Bird’s hometown—French Lick, Indiana. The Reds trained at Indiana University in Bloomington. It was there that head groundkeeper Matty Schwab discovered a big football player who could hit the ball a mile. The Reds were happy he did. The player was Ted Kluszewski who would star for the Reds in the 50s and hit 40 or more home runs twice.


The Brooklyn Dodgers went upstate to the Bear Mountain Resort in New York. The Phillies set up camp in nearby Wilmington, Delaware and the Pirates went all the way to Muncie, Indiana.


The St. Louis Cardinals crossed the Mississippi and worked out at Cairo, Illinois while the American League Browns used Cape Girardeau, Missouri just a few miles away.


The New York Giants trained during the war in nearby Lakewood, New Jersey while the Yankees tried both Asbury Park and Atlantic City. In fact, in 1945 the Red Sox also moved to Atlantic City from Medford, Massachusetts. That would have made a great opportunity for Joe and Dom DiMaggio of the Yankees and Red Sox respectively to get together. Alas, both were serving in the U.S. military and not in camp for a reunion.


The Chicago White Sox, like the Cubs tried French Lick for a couple of springs then moved on to Terre Haute, Indiana in 1945. The Indians stayed in Indiana as well by using Purdue University’s field house as home and the Detroit Tigers were also part time Hoosiers when they trained in Evansville. The original Washington Senators trained just a few miles from home on the campus of the University of Maryland at College Park. The Philadelphia A’s used both Wilmington, Delaware and Frederick Maryland.


During World War II Indiana hosted more teams than any other state which might win some bar bets. Only Florida, Arizona and Texas have hosted more.


Yet, before Florida and Arizona claimed major league baseball a number of other widely disparate locations had teams working out in advance of the season.


Hot Springs, Arkansas was popular. So was New Orleans and several cities in the Carolinas, Georgia and California. Three teams trained on islands. The Cubs were a fixture on Catalina Island off the California coast when William Wrigley owned it. The Pittsburgh Pirates once trained in Honolulu, Hawaii. The Dodgers call two islands spring homes—Cuba and the Dominican Republic. In 1947 and 1948 much of the reason was because the club was integrating and living conditions were more favorable.


When major league baseball moved into Florida and Arizona neither state had major league baseball. Spring training has gotten bigger and better even so. The days of Indiana and New Jersey serving as substitute spring homes is a foot note from the past and won’t likely ever happen again.

Spring Training Used to be a Texas Thing!

Spring Training in Texas?  It Was Once a Big Deal!

This week pitchers and catchers are reporting to major league baseball spring training camps in Arizona and Florida.  But Texas was once a very popular spot for spring training years ago.

From the time organized pre season workouts began in the 1890s teams had sought warmer weather climates than afforded to the teams based in the northeast and midwest—which included all of them at the time. 

As early as 1904 Major League Baseball found Texas.  That spring the St. Louis Browns opened a camp in Corsicana, the St. Louis Cardinals gave Dallas a shot, the Chicago White Sox set up camp in Marlin Springs and the Cleveland Indians moved even further south to San Antonio.  For the next 30+ years someone would be training in Texas with an occasional foray into the state as late as 1941 when the Browns completed a five year stay in San Antonio. Only 1935 during the period between 1904 and 1941 saw Texas without a team in camp.

According to Baseball-Almanac.com no fewer than fourteen different major league clubs during the 16 team era trained at least once in Texas.  Only the Chicago Cubs and Brooklyn Dodgers never did.  The Yankees were here only once—in Houston in 1914. The Red Sox (San Antonio, 1924), Phillies (New Braunfels, 1939) and Pirates (San Antonio, 1936) were other one time visitors.

Along with Corsicana, Dallas, San Antonio, Mineral Springs and Houston other cities to host big league teams included: Waxahachie, Galveston, Eagle Pass, Cisco, Mineral Wells, Seguin, Waco, St. Augustine, Palestine, Hot Wells, Brownsville, Orange and New Braunfels.  Wichita Falls hosted two teams from the Federal League, Indianapolis in 1914 and Kansas City in 1915.  Marshall hosted Kansas City in 1914.

Three major league clubs of note spent the most time in Texas.  The New York Giants trained in Marlin Springs for eleven springs from 1908 through 1918 and had two stints in San Antonio from 1920 thru 1923 and again from 1929 thru 1931.  Manager John McGraw loved the place.  He was not a fan of Ty Cobb, though.   When both the Tigers and Giants trained in San Antonio and were quartered in different hotels on Alamo Square they stayed apart.  McGraw would not so much as play an exhibition game with Cobb’s Detroit team.

Detroit was a semi regular in San Antonio.  They trained there in 1909 and 1910 and again in 1921, 1927-28 and finally in 1933.

The three other clubs besides the Giants that spent the most training time in Texas were the St. Louis Browns, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox. While the Giants trained 17 years in Texas at two different cities—San Antonio and Marlin Springs—the Browns visited seven cities in 17 years.  They used Houston and San Antonio twice and also camped in Corsicana, Dallas, Waco and Palestine.

The White Sox trained in Texas for 15 seasons in seven different cities.  Marlin Springs, Waxahachie, Seguin, Dallas, San Antonio, Mineral Wells and Waco.  The latter two were used on two separate stints each.

The St. Louis Cardinals were also a frequent visitor.  Fourteen springs were in Texas for camp with San Antonio on their list twice, but Houston having the most springs with four.

Through all of the Texas spring training years San Antonio was the most popular single city from most different teams using the facilities to most total years used.

Thirty -three spring training camps were held in the Alamo city from 1904 through 1941.  No city rivaled Marlin Springs longevity with the Giants eleven straight years.

In the Texas days of spring training things were far different than today.  Camps were used to get players in physical shape.  Many did very little or no conditioning in the off season and would report to camp soft and well over weight.  While hitters took batting practice and fielders took ground balls and fly balls and pitchers threw to get the kinks out of their arms, there was no organized exhibition game schedule.

It mattered little how close or how far the next nearest big league club was training.  If the manager wanted some game competition he would either organize intra squad games or invite local amateur teams to play.  The playing conditions were crude and ballparks hardly in the best shape. 

Still, as spring training in the modern fan friendly facilities opens in Arizona and Florida it is good to remember for many years Texas played a major role in getting the big leaguers ready to play.

From Low Projections to Major League Stars can Happen

Don’t Overestimate “Moneyball”—Astros Aren’t

Maybe the word “moneyball” is so catchy that it has been trapped in the minds of many baseball fans.  If the publisher of Michael Lewis’ book had not chosen that title perhaps few of us would have ever remembered what the Oakland A’s under general manager Billy Beane may have pioneered as simply a necessary financially base plan.

In reality all the A’s did was to seek players (draft choices, free agents and others) who would not cost as much as others, but who had qualities that may have been over looked.  With hitters that meant players who may have lacked some of the five tools, but who still had worth thanks to the performances they had demonstrated in the past and could still be productive major leaguers.

The movie version of the book was mostly centered around how the club would be able to replace Jason Giambi at first base.  The club knew it could not compete with big spending franchises like the Yankees and that Giambi would be only the first of their stars to depart via free agency.  How could the A’s remain relevant?

That is where the concept now known as moneyball was given emphasis.  But in many ways it was both highly over rated and certainly nothing really new.

For instance, the success of the A’s from 2000 through 2006 encompassed time with Giambi and without.  His replacement at first base after he left in 2001 was Scott Hatteburg for three years.  He was an adequate player, but not nearly as productive as Giambi had been.  Hatteburg had a good on base percentage for a hitter whose batting averaged ranged from .253 to .284.  He had only modest power and did not score a particularly impressive number of runs or drive in more than his career high 84 in 2004.   In other words he proved he could play in the major leagues, but hardly star in them.  Every club can use players like Hatteburg, but they also need more.  The A’s still had more.

The real stars of those teams had names like Tejada, Chavez, Zito, Mulder, Dye and Isringhausen.  They were the nucleus of the clubs led by Art Howe and Ken Macha that routinely won 90 or more games and under Howe surpassed 100 wins twice.

GM Beane must be given credit for one thing.  He saw the future.  The future was that the A’s with their low fan support and revenue would not be able to compete with the big boys for long.  Oakland has to do the best they can with the money they have—which isn’t much.

The Astros know all of this.  Some of their off season acquisitions may be in the Hatteburg mold.  But the real long term plan doesn’t center around the Jack Cust’s or even the Jed Lowries.  The Astros know that when they rejoin the list of contenders it will be led by players they have developed.  They are using modern techniques of statistical analysis combined with old fashioned good scouting and development.   From the players scouted, drafted and signed they want to move past the old standard of potential and emphasize the projection analysis.

There is at the very least a subtle difference between the meanings of potential and projection.

Potential is often derived from the five tool evaluations scouts have used for years.  For position players that starts with can he hit?  Can he hit with power? Can he run? Can he field? Can he throw?  Those qualities, especially the last three can be determined from watching games.  The first two are harder to determine since the level of competition can often disguise things.  Many players drafted in the first round are selected on potential.  A lot of so called good athletes also are drafted.  Often, though, the best athletes don’t make good baseball players.

Projecting whether a player can make it to the major leagues is an educated guess.  Those educated guesses are made once a player has had a chance to begin his professional career.  Projections are made after his mental makeup is factored along with his tools and achievements.  Can that high potential player based on the five tools make it higher as a pro when things start to get rougher and he faces more failure?  Does he adapt well to coaching and instruction?  Does he have the heart and desire  along with enough talent to succeed?

When I was doing radio play by play for the Buffalo Bisons  which was the Pirates AA club in 1979 the team had three players who would later spend extensive time in the major leagues.  Only one of them, catcher Tony Pena, was a highly regarded prospect who definitely projected to be a star.  He became one, too   The other two were not even projected to be regulars with the Bisons when the season began.  Outfielder Luis Salazar was to be the extra outfielder, but a late injury in spring training allowed him to move into the regular lineup.  He starred by hitting over 30 home runs.  Before his career ended he had played 13 years in the majors with the Padres, White Sox, Tigers and Cubs.

The other non prospect was lefthanded pitcher Dave Dravecky who was probably was only on the team because he was a lefty.  From a short middle reliever he moved into the rotation as the season continued.  He never stopped moving until he had played eight years in the majors and won 14 games for the 1983 Padres.

You may know the story of Dravecky  His career was interrupted by cancer, but he came back and almost literally pitched his arm off.  Weakened from radiation treatment his arm actually snapped delivering a pitch for the Giants in 1989.  Damaged so severely it had to be amputated. 

The lesson I never forgot from both Salazar and Dravecky is how important heart, desire and hard work is for players to overcome odds set against them by scouts and baseball officials and to make it.

Closer to home the Astros have two players who are trying to over come low first impressions.  Outfielder J.D. Martinez was not even a starter when he began is pro career.  At that point he was evaluated as a nice minor league outfielder. He was a 20^th round draftee and did not possess high scores in all the tools categories.  He had little speed, a average outfield arm and his swing did not produce much power.  Soon, however, he showed he could hit for high enough averages that any speed or power shortages could be down played.  Then he started to develop some punch.  He became a major league prospect.  He was never projected to be, but now may be a regular in the major leagues  in 2012.

Second baseman Jose Altuve is another whose work ethic, heart, desire and intense love for baseball have moved him from novelty minor league filler to the major leagues.  Until his rapid rise last season Altuve was most known around baseball as the shortest player in uniform.  Though he has always been listed as 5’7” he is likely closer to 5’5”.  He is also one of the best hitters in professional baseball.  He got where he his through hard work, developing skill and determination to be a star in the game he loves.

The Astros plan is to find and develop more players like Martinez and Altuve to go with good decisions at the top of the draft.  The plan also includes finding players in other systems  via trades who might have the same qualities to “come out of nowhere.”

The Astros plan is solid.  They know there is more to scouting and developing than just what a print out sheet shows.  They also know what those sheets may show can give some leads where to look for talent.

A lot has been made of the backgrounds of GM Jeff Luhnow and Director of Decision Science, Sig Mejdal.  That is fitting since both are from a winning organization in St. Louis that has shown how to meld the scouts and minor league development personnel with the statistical analysis needed to get the best picture possible.  Everything works together to get the best picks on draft day and in trades.

The Astros want players who have a chance not only to make the Astros, but to become key parts of a consistent winning Astros ball club.  If not , then good enough to become parts of future trades made to help strengthen the club.

Going what will likely be called “the moneyball route” or re-building a franchise with young players is nothing new.  Many have tried.  Some teams have not been able to stick it out long enough for positive results to be achieved.  Others have made bad choice and have been relegated to the lower standngs for years.  By using both good statistical analysis and eyes on the field Houston hopes not to make the mistakes of others.

Fans and the club itself will have to be patient.  There will be some failures and more games lost along the way.  Yet, success can be achieved.

One of the keys is not having players themselves be concerned with what they may read (officially or not) about how they project.  You have seen plenty of them.  Player A looks like no more than a #4 starter in the major leagues, or Player B has a good glove, but won’t be able to hit for much power.  You see those all the time. 

No player who ever reads less than positive comments should ever hang their head and give up any more than any player being praised for his skills thinks he has it made.    Remember Salazar, Dravecky, Martinez and Altuve.  They never quit.  And whatever happened to players like Mike Ivie  or Brien Taylor?

Hard work and a positive attitude go a long way in baseball.   

Big 12 Baseball Starts this Week--a Preview

Baseball Season is Here for the Big 12

 Major League Baseball clubs are opening camps next week in Arizona and Florida.  But for baseball fans the season is beginning now—on the collegiate level.

Texas A&M, the pre season top pick in the Big 12—the school’s last season in the loop before moving on to the SEC in 2013 opens Friday at home against Illinois-Chicago.  That begins a 21 game season opening home stand where Aggie fans can enjoy all the improvements to the facility now known officially as Olson Field at Bluebell Park.  Rob Childress’ team gets the favorites nod as a result of bringing a team with two starting pitchers, Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha returning, plus four of the top hitters.  Childress told the participants in the Big 12’s pre-season coaches conference call on Tuesday that regular spots at catcher and second base are open, but he likes what he has in competition.  Veteran Scott Arthur along with Charlie Curl, who saw a lot of action in 2011, will be joined by newcomer Blake Allemond in the second base hunt.  Whoever wins the catching nod will be inexperienced.  Sophomore Troy Stein and freshmen Michael Nau and Cole Lankford are the only other full time catchers on the roster.

If the Aggies don’t win the title the coaches think it will either Texas or Oklahoma.  It is no surprise to see them both highly rated thanks to their traditions of excellence.  But both will be calling are far more new players than the Aggies.  New or not, remember the name Damien Magnifico for OU.  The JC tranfer from Howard has lit the radar gun at Dale Mitchell Park at 103 MPH according to his coach Sunny Golloway.  He was a round five pick out of high school and figures not to drop any after this season.  He is slaged to be a shut down closer right now.  Golloway’s rotation is heading toward three Sooners—all JC transfers when they arrived on campus.  Dillon Overton ,who was around last year and started seven games, will be joined by Jonathan Gray, a 6-4 230 pound sophomore from Eastern Oklahoma State.  Gray was a tenth round draftee by the Yankees last spring.  The third weekend starter figures to be Steven Okert who moves in from Grayson CC. 

The Sooners were one of several former slugging clubs hit hard by the reduced “jump” in the re-engineered metal bats in 2011.  Coach Golloway says the bats have been adjusted this year and he expects more offense from all of college baseball.

Augie Garrido is the winningest coach in the history of college baseball.  Last season despite a team batting average of only .269 with a miniscule 17 home runs the Texas Longhorns were 49-19 and went to the College World Series.  There is little chance the 2012 Longhorns can pitch as well as their 2.35 team ERA showed in 2011.  However, Garrido, who is a master as playing small ball, is not too concerned.  He always has fundamentally sound clubs with good pitching and defense.  No reason to expect any less this year.  The team has lost Cole Walla for the year with a knee injury, but Garrido is high on freshman infielder Brooks Marlow and freshman pitcher John Curtiss.  The best returning hitter on the club, Erich Weiss needs to keep doing what he did last year as a freshman when he hit .348 with a .483 on base percentage.

Oklahoma State has lost Big 12 home run leader Zach Johnson, but coach Frank Anderson thinks they have recruited well and have some solid new faces.  Bullpen depth is good.  Starting pitching will feature a lot of new faces so how good the Cowboys will be is to be determined.

The same could be said for Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri.  All have strengths.  Texas Tech has Jamodric McGruder- the best on base man in the league.  His on base percentage in 2011 was a whopping .470 thanks to an average of .293 to go with 35 walks and an unreal 25 times being hit by a pitch.  Outfielder Barrett Barnes isn’t so shabby either.  He hit ten homers in 2011.  Scott Lejeune is back and healthy, too.  If the pitching…

Same story with Baylor.  Coach Steve Smith is moving Max Garner from the bullpen where he closed out eight saves to the rotation.  Baylor has 20 returning lettermen from last season’s 31-28 team.  The Bears offense should be adequate if the pitching can carry things.

Ritch Price at Kansas says his freshman group is the best ever recruited by the Jayhawks.  They need to be with Kansas coming off a 26-30 season that ended with nine straight losses including four blown saves.  Offensively Price really thinks centerfielder Conner McKay is extremely gifted.  He also has high praise for another newcomer, left fielder, Michael Suiter..  Tanner Poppe moves from the rotation to closer and pitching will be the key to success at KU.

Missouri’s Tim Jamieson gives one the impression he thinks his club could surprise.  Heavily loaded with experienced veterans Tim says his new pitchers make up the best group in years.  The weather in the Midwest was good for much of the early season work and Jamieson figures they won’t lose an early game on a dropped fly ball as occurred last season when the Tigers had not been outside to even see a fly ball till their first game.

Finally, at Kansas State coach Brad Hill says his lineup is set.  The Wildcats will still be tinkering a bit with their pitchers in early games and he is going to give Jared Moore a shot at the rotation.  But if Matt Applegate can take charge of that rotation the Wildcats have a good chance to better their 36-25 of last year that got them into the post season.

Fox Sports Net will again be televising Big 12 Baseball nationally.   Action starts the first weekend in April.  But the full season begins this weekend for Big 12 teams.

Reading Can Help You Understand Baseball Better

Get Ready for the Baseball Season By Reading!

This time of year magazines directed to fantasy baseball are starting to appear on the newsstands. Sometimes it seems more people play the fantasy game—in baseball or football— than those that pay attention to the real thing. However, I have a couple, if not new but still in the bookstore, books that fans more concerned with the real game of baseball should consider adding to their libraries.


One is called “The Unwritten Rules of Baseball” (Harper Collins) which became an oxymoron when those rules compiled by Paul Dickson first appeared in print in 2009. You may recognize the name, Paul Dickson. He also wrote the “Dickson Baseball Dictionary in 1989,” “Baseball’s Greatest Quotations” in 1991 and “The Hidden Language of Baseball” in 2003 among others. Dickson’s work is for fans of the real game and great for new fans to major league baseball.


Most of the so-call unwritten rules don’t apply to the strategy used in games, but mostly how players conduct themselves. For instance an unwritten rule is to respect the other team and do not “show up” the opposition. This one used to be followed religiously in many ways from not stealing bases with big leads or swinging at 3-0 pitches under the same circumstances. Everyone who has ever watched a major league game has seen these guidelines ignored at times. However, a young player who forgets will be reminded by his teammates…or by the opposing pitcher.


Which brings us to another unwritten rule: If you DO show up the opposition by showboating on a home run or violating one of the rules in the previous paragraph you likely will have to get out of the way of a very close pitch the next time you hit. Or at least that is how the game used to be played.


This unwritten rule is hard to follow in current baseball since pitchers daring to throw inside in situations that would have called for it under the unwritten rules are often in danger in being tossed out of the game by the umpire. Times have changed.


I am not going to spoil the book for you by going over any more of these unwritten rules, but you get the idea. Author Dickson fills the 244 pages with a listing of rules for players, managers, umpires, score keepers, media and even fans. It is a good read peppered with anecdotes illustrating many of the “unwritten rules” in action. If you have to choose one book to buy, pick Paul Dickson’s work.


The other tome, while a bit heavy statistically for some tastes is another good read to prep for a long season . It was originally published in 2007 and compiled by Tom Tango, Michel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin (Potomac Books). Titled simply, “The Book” it covers the strategic moves most used by baseball managers and why they use them. It also offers statistical evidence why some long time common moves may not be the best. For instance, in the National League where the pitcher bats, there is great discussion when the manager should order a bunt and when it is not a good idea. A manager’s evaluation of his pitcher’s hitting skill should be taken into account more than it often is according to “The Book.”


How about making out lineups? Traditionally the number one hitter has been a non power player who has a good on base percentage and base stealing speed. The number two man needs to have bat control with few strikeouts, hit from behind in the count, have nearly as good or better batting average more more power than the leadoff man. Maybe not as swift, but still a good base runner.


The number three hitter has traditionally been the best hitter for average with good power but maybe not as much as the #4 hitter. The number four or cleanup hitter traditionally has had the best power and RBI ability. He usually has little or no speed.


Number five has usually been less skilled than #3 or #5, but not much. Perhaps he has a bit lower average. The sixth place hitter is slightly less skilled than #5, but ideally still will have some power.


Once the lineup gets to #7 the team needs a hitter who can drive the ball a bit if possible before the bottom two hitters step up. The 8th place hitter should be able to hit bad balls and get runners home before the pitcher comes up. If there are no runners with two outs he can look for a walk just to get the pitcher to the plate and not to start a new inning. He does not need to walk much, but should have a good enough eye in strategic moments when a pinch hitter will be used next.


In the American League with no pitcher in the lineup the #9 hitter may have some of the qualities of the leadoff man but be less skilled.


“The Book” says that generalization may not be correct based on statistical research dealing with how often the best hitters get to the plate. The top five hitters shouldn’t follow the tradition according to some research.


Do you think the #2 and #4 hitters or the #3 and the #5 hitters are interchangeable? Researchers for “The Book” say they are. Carlos Lee hitting second and Jose Altuve fourth? Or Jeff Bagwell in the second slot and Craig Biggio number four?


Personally this is where the statistical analysis folks and yours truly part company a bit. We are only talking about pure hitting comparisons, but as we know there is more than pure hitting numbers that go into a batting order. Speed is one thing. The Biggio-Bagwell switch might have had some merit, I suppose. Both could run. But moving slow footed Carlos Lee to second in the order makes little sense despite his hitting numbers. Players on base percentage and/or slugging percentage are two other factors. Biggio-Bagwell are close enough. Bags hit homers but Biggio hit a fair share and a whole bunch of doubles. Lee and Altuve are not close at all save possibly for batting average. Altuve is not an extra base hitter and rarely walks. Lee is very slow. Just getting more at bats with runners on only works if the hitters can bring them home. The traditional “Book” lineup has speed and on base hitters at the top with average and power hitters following. Yes, there are many innings in which those at the top fail to reach base or are retired in order and the #4 hitter leads off the next inning. But if just one of the top three reach base the player with the most power hits with a runner on. Statistics also show the team that scores first wins a high percentage of the time. That is why “The Book” sets things as it is—statistical revelations be damned.


Interesting reading in both book books for those who want to know the “whys” and “hows” of major league baseball. There is also some well researched documentation. All of it thanks to “The Unwritten Rules of Baseball” and “The Book.”

Brad Mills Outlines Spring Plans for Astros

Astros Ready for Florida

The equipment truck will pull out of Minute Maid Park Monday morning. Spring training will begin in Kissimmee, Florida on February 20th. It is just about time for the Great American Game to begin.


For baseball fans the opening of training camps is one of the most exciting days of the year. Sure, that fades during the long run of exhibition games that don’t count. At the same time, especially with teams like the Astros that will have competition for pitching and playing time, there is something to follow on a daily basis. Wins and losses don’t matter. How the individuals perform is what matters.


On Wednesday the Astros held a media brunch with GM Jeff Luhnow, Mgr. Brad Mills and CEO George Postolos in attendance. It was the last time to chat with Luhnow or Mills before camp opened. Perhaps the conversations with skipper Mills were most interesting.


For one thing he says despite an opening training camp roster of over 60 players the club will actually play fewer games than last spring. In 2011 the Astros played a number of “B” games in an effort to get more pitchers some work. But it also meant the players were involved in more games than desired. Mills felt it showed in September when fatigue set in, but it also may have been a factor with the Astros slow start when the regular season began which set a negative tone for the whole year.


This year there will be far fewer “B” games and more time off. Mills said second baseman Jose Altuve will get significant time off once he is zeroed in. Altuve played winter ball in Venezuela after working his way to the Astros from Class A in one year. He had almost 900 at bats. He had more hits than any player in professional baseball in the twelve month period. In September he was tired, but after a short time off he went home to play more. Mills says Altuve will not be pushed in the spring.


There will be a push at third base. It will be a push for the job. Jimmy Paredes, Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace will all get some playing time. Yes, Brett Wallace! Wally will still be primarily a first baseman, but since he has experience from his college days at the hot corner he will be given some refresher work to hone his skills and may contend for the position if he has a good spring and his competitors struggle. That fact that he hits left-handed is a plus. With Carlos Lee slated to hold down first base Wallace could get some platoon time on either side of the infield if he passes the spring test at third.


Mills says Jed Lowrie is likely the shortstop but that Marwin Gonzalez a Rule V pickup will be watched closely and the system has some other shortstops of note who only need to show a better bat.


With the signings of outfielders Jack Cust, Fernando Martinez, Travis Buck and Brad Snyder there will be solid competition for the club’s outfield spots. Of the Astro outfield candidates only Jason Bourgeois was a member of the club for all of 2011.


Perhaps Mills most interesting point was that if the camp opened today he would have Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and Bud Norris in the rotation, not necessarily in that order, but who would work out of #4 or #5 is fully open. Most fans and reporters have long assumed J.A. Happ and Jordan Lyles were in those slots, but Mills says he will look at a number of other candidates as well.


That list includes the veteran Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke plus Henry Sosa, Kyle Weiland, and maybe more including Happ and Lyles.


Some of those who don’t make the rotation may find homes in the bullpen. Others may find homes at Oklahoma City, Corpus Christi or not in the organization.


It will be that kind of spring. Messrs Mills, Luhnow and Postolos are all ready to get things started on the field. Off the field Luhnow says the master plan is being followed and Postolos said that one off season sales goal was reached on Monday.


Astros Media Relations Director, Gene Dias reminded all of the annual Baseball Dinner is set for Friday with Fan Fest at Minute Maid Park on Saturday Feb. 11. Individual game tickets will also go on sale that day.


It may still be April 6th before the season officially begins, but baseball started to feel much closer on Wednesday.

Spring Training Coming, but Will Oswalt Have a Team?

Free Agency Isn’t Really Free For Either Side

The only significant free agent still floating around baseball less than two weeks before camps open is former Astro right-handed pitcher Roy Oswalt. It seems his requirements for a new team are not fitting what the teams have to offer.


Let us be honest about all this. It is all about the money. Well, it is MOSTLY about the money. You see, Oswalt has been trying to pick the teams he wants to play for, but so far none of them have been willing or able to meet his reported asking price.


The price, reported by various respected sources including FoxSports.com first, has been $8-10 million on a one year contract. Oswalt has expressed interest in the Cardinals and Rangers and maybe even a return to the Phillies. However, even those successful or big money clubs have spent what is in the bank already.


The Boston Red Sox have been mentioned as interested. Boston is probably the more in need of another starter like Oswalt than the Cards, Rangers or Phillies. And even though they have deep pockets they don't seem to be interested in Oswalt’s current price.


Oswalt and his agent have apparently turned down Detroit which is interesting since the Tigers are one of the better teams in baseball and playing for a sure fire contender has been one of Oswalt’s goals. That is why the Pirates or Reds who may have shown some interest are unlikely landing spots. Reds GM Walt Jocketty has been quoted as saying everything tying Oswalt to the Reds are just rumors and there has been no contact between the parties.


At some point unless Roy cuts his asking price or accepts an offer from one of his less desirable franchises his career could be over. Funny thing is, though. That was Oswalt’s originally stated plan when he was still in Houston. He told anyone who asked about his future that once his contract was up he was moving back to Weir, Mississippi and retire. The Astros traded him to Philadelphia before his contract ran out and he played a year and a half with the Phils. Then he became a free agent and apparently changed his mind about retiring. He is finding that free agency does allow for some picking and choosing about the future, but the teams are picking and choosing as well.


If the Astros were in a better place he would fit in here well. He could finally pass Joe Niekro and become the winningest pitcher in franchise history. Alas, that “better place” is at least a year away. This is not the time to sign a high dollar pitcher that would take development time from the young arms. The object is not to win the World Series in 2012, but to start to move in the direction that would make that possible. Roy is the same pitcher now—only older—who was traded in 2010 to start making way for a team rebuild.


It is almost unfathomable that Oswalt won’t hook on with someone soon. He can still pitch when his body (back) hangs together. There has to be a contender who can find room in the rotation for a player of his ilk. Who will that team be?

Astros Deciding on Players AND Future Uniform

As Astros Mull Uniform Change for 2013-- Concept Nothing New

Once the Houston Astros decided to remain the Houston Astros under new owner Jim Crane the next area of change afoot seems to be with their uniforms. While many might say what is most important is to get the right players in whatever uniforms they have—and be correct—there are lots of reasons why uniforms are important. A recent edition of “The Pecan Park Eagle”—the daily blog written by local baseball and Houston historian, Dr. Bill McCurdy (http:// bill37mccurdy.wordpress.com) got me thinking about this.


What the players wear can give a team an image to the public. Notice I said, “can give a team an image.” That is not a guarantee unless the team also shows a long period of success as well.


Certainly the best example of that is the New York Yankees. Their pin striped home and gray road uniforms have barely changed since the 1920s. The NY logo on the caps and breast of the home uniforms is classic. Babe Ruth wore essentially the same uniform as Derek Jeter. So did Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio. When one thinks of the Yankees, the uniform almost immediately comes to mind as well.


The same can be said with teams like the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers for example. In a few instances some of those teams slipped away from the classic style such as the Braves in the 1970s, and the White Sox during the Bill Veeck ownership years, but all of them came home. Other teams such as the Chicago Cubs and White Sox got off the track but are back to their classic look as their basic uniform.


If fans are going to identify with teams for years and years and years they don’t want too much change. The Astros learned that when they floated the idea of a possible name change and fans came out of the wood work and basements to make sure they were heard.


Had the same sort of question been floated before the team’s push to the American League the results would likely have been the same. In that instance, however, the fans were not consulted.


Fans do accept some change, however. The current trend for alternate uniforms that break from the tradition have been accepted by all clubs—including the Yankees. A different shirt for Sundays or pre game is quite common. Maybe even a different alternative cap. But the basic Yankee pinstripes are still worn most home games.


The Astros problem is deciding uniforms for 2013 to coincide with the move to the American League is they have no traditional look. (Notice, by the way, I have not brought up the issue of merchandising and sales of products. Today that is a very important part of all decisions. This is just for us baseball fans.) So do they design something entirely new or look to the past for inspiration?


The most famous Astro look was the one most ridiculed—the orange striped uniforms of the mid 70s to mid 80s. Now, those uniforms are collector’s items, but when they were worn many fans and sports writers around the country laughed. Would they work, however, as an alternative uniform to be worn on Sundays and holidays? You can bet that thought is one of many the club has considered.


The Astros wore what most would consider classic baseball styles—others would say dull—in the early days of the franchise both as the Colt 45s and Astros and in the last days of the Astrodome’s use.


From 1962 through 1970 the home uniform was plain white with a nickname logo on the front. The road uniforms were gray with the block letters spelling Houston on the front. The caps were navy blue with either “45s” from 1962 through 1964 or or the orange star with the while block “H”. The team colors were orange, blue and white.


The first orange caps appeared in 1971 and lasted through 1982. A switch to a navy blue cap arrived in 1983. In 1975 the club went to the orange striped top leaving convention completely. In fact at the beginning they wore the same uniform home and road. No one was going to confuse the teams for sure.


From 1975 through 1993 the name “Houston” was not to be found on any Astro uniform. However, as soon as Drayton McLain, Jr. could get things changed he made sure the city was represented on the road jerseys again. He also ditched the Astro orange based color scheme which had been used on less garish uniforms—limited to shoulder stripes—from 1987 through 1993.


The Astro uniforms from 1994 through 1999 went back to classic styling with silver, blue and white the primary colors. As a trade off, perhaps, for the block “H” being removed from the caps for a an open silver star the name “Houston” appeared on the gray road uniforms. That was also the first uniform era in which alternative uniforms appeared.


That brings fans to the present. Since 2000 the Astro colors have been brick red, white and navy blue. On the road it might be a brick red top or a full gray uniform. The cap can be brick red or blue.


What will the Astros decide should be the look starting in 2013. I am partial to the classic look of the final Astrodome years, but others don’t like those uniforms at all. Many are intrigued by the orange stripes, but concede that time is probably passed. The original Houston Astro look also receives strong backing with the shooting star above the Astros name on a cream colored home jersey and a simple gray road uniform. Hardly anyone I have heard from wants the status quo.


What do you think? What about colors? And what about longevity? How many want something that will last for decades as the uniforms of the Yankees have done. Or does that take multiple world championships first? Let me know your thoughts. As always you may contact me directly at: foxsportshouston@yahoo.com.

NFL Chose a Good City for Its Big Event

Indianapolis Makes Move to Even Bigger Time

It would be improper to say that now that Indianapolis is hosting the Super Bowl the city has reached the big time. Certainly the Super Bowl is the single most followed sporting event in the United States, but is hardly the first big event hosted in the Indiana capital.


There is an event called the Indianapolis 500 that has been drawing up to 300,000 fans for a single race for the last 100+ years. In the last decade or so NASCAR has also raced at Indy with the Brickyard 400 and it draws well over two hundred thousand fans. Indianapolis has also hosted the Pam Am Games, world class tennis, numerous NCAA Final Fours, the NCAA and U.S. Swimming and Diving Finals and the NCAA and U.S. Track and Field championships. In other words the Super Bowl is just the latest of big events hosted by Indianapolis. It also likely has won the right to host another one down the line.


Listening and reading the words of sportscasters and writers around the country the city has received a high passing grade. One of the main reasons is the same reason the Houston Astros, Houston Rockets and Houston Dynamo are located where they are in our town. The venues are downtown or very close. Locating everything nearby was a plan to rejuvenate downtown Indianapolis and it has paid off.


Consider that when I was a student at Butler University on the near north side going downtown was something one did only if they wanted to visit one of the two big department stores. There was nothing else except offices and the state capitol downtown. By 5:30pm the place was deserted. They had a pigeon problem and they even sent men with shot guns downtown at night to shoot pigeons!


In the late 1960s a decision was made to build the Indiana Pacers a new home. When they joined the old ABA they were forced to play in the Indiana State Fairgrounds Coliseum after Butler University rejected their bid to play in the 15,000 seat Butler (later Hinkle) Fieldhouse. The Coliseum seated just over 9,000 and was sold out frequently as local basketball fans embraced the ABA.


When a new facility was considered, the early thinking was to build it somewhere on the edges of the city in the suburbs. But a young mayor named Richard Lugar, now a U.S. Senator, thought it should go downtown to be the centerpiece for downtown revitalization.


That was the beginning of the turn around downtown. Next, came a convention center which was in just the right location to build a domed stadium even without a team. The idea was sold to the public as a convention center addition even if was never used for sports.


The Baltimore Colts were courted, but were also being courted by Phoenix, Memphis and other cities when it appeared Robert Irsay would not get a new stadium in Baltimore. When Irsay made his visit to Indianapolis the Colts future was assured. He walked in the building—which had been laid out in a football configuration—and he noticed right away that the seats were all blue… Colt blue. It was purely a co-incidence, but it may have been the final selling point.


While the Colts were on their way and getting established, the city was not sitting still. A goal to make the city the amateur sports capital of the country was in the planning stages. A new track and field stadium, a new velodrome and a world class natatorium were all funded. Even the Triple A Indianapolis Indians of minor league baseball got a new stadium. It too, was built downtown.


Before long with so many championship events being staged in Indianapolis the NCAA transferred its headquarters from the Kansas City area to…downtown Indianapolis.


Oh, there have been politicians taking a lot of heat for spending on facilities instead of on sidewalks or parks. Indianapolis has since financed another new home for the Pacers and the Lucas Oil Stadium for the Colts, but the population has doubled since the 1960s when everything started. Indianapolis was the nation’s 12th largest city in 2010 with a city population of 820,445. The city's 6000 downtown hotel rooms are being stretched—and over priced-- by the Super Bowl, but that is still about 1000 more downtown rooms than Houston can boast—a city with about 1.5 million more citizens.


Admittedly the weather this week in Indianapolis has been unseasonably warm. It may rain Sunday, but they have a roof. Things have been much more comfortable than last year in Arlington for the weather plagued and some felt too spread out activities. Of course, the NFL can’t ignore 30,000 extra seats so Arlington is cinch to host more Super Bowls. Indianapolis is no cinch, but also cannot be counted out. The city can handle big events.

Aim Right and Shoot Early..in Basketball

EARLY SHOTS EQUAL MORE SUCCESS—WHAT ELSE IS NEW!

A recent news story said that scientific studies of NBA games showed that teams who shot the ball earlier in the 24 second clock had more success. I hate to disparage people who enjoy putting numbers into computers and seeing what comes out, but the result the computer guys came up with is—COMMON SENSE. This is not to criticize the work of Brian Skinner, a theoretical physicist at the University of Minnesota who conducted the study and had to sample 5000 NBA games to do it. He really didn’t need to watch that many games or take so many notes. It has been evident ever since the shot clocks started being used that teams don’t get many good shots out of the last ten seconds of a shot clock in normal play.


But “wait a minute”, you say. What about Gene Hackman in “Hoosiers” telling his players they had to make five passes before shooting. Or what about all those motion offenses used by teams on all levels that involve multiple passes? What about Josh Lucas (Don Haskins) in “Glory Road” who had to get most of the playground style out of his players before molding them into an NCAA Champ?


Neither Gene nor Josh (Don) had to deal with a shot clock.


I am not disparaging teams that share the ball or look for good shots. If they are smart about it they certainly have an edge on the dribble dribble shoot playground teams. It is just that the stats show early shots equal better teams. But do you know why? Early shots include fast break baskets. They include “early offense” shots that are taken before defenses have had time to fully set up. Those shots, lay ups and two on one baskets, always lead to higher shooting percentages. Higher shooting percentages equal more points which lead to more wins.


Anyone who watches basketball these days knows some of the worst offense results from teams trying to work the shot clock down. Invariably it seems they wind up with desperation shots just to avoid the shot clock time expiring. And upon reflection of the possession there were many better options that were passed up.


The Houston Cougars loss to North Carolina State in the 1983 NCAA finals was attributed in part to Coach Guy Lewis changing his team’s usual aggressive offensive style which resulted in either poor shots or fouls. The Cougars could not hit foul shots and that ultimately did them in. Lewis had legitimate reasons for his strategic move since his club was foul troubled and had already lost minutes from key players due to those troubles. The bottom line was that when the team took more time to shoot they did not perform well and lost the game. The Cougars may have done worse down the stretch if the shot clock had existed then. That was just not their style.


No one who watches basketball thinks this means that teams should shoot earlier just to shoot earlier. But they should not be afraid to take an earlier shot if it is a good one.


At the same time there is a place for controlling the ball and clock within reason.


Years ago before the colleges used the shot clock I did play by play for Bradley University basketball. The head coach at the time was Joe Stowell. At times in a game he would go into what he called “control to score.” It looked like a close relative of the famed North Carolina “four corners.” It also looked like an old fashioned stall. But the object was to still score points—hence the name. The “control to score” was set up to spread the court with passes, but break a player down the lane here and there. If the passing lane was right and a layup was certain he would receive the ball and go to the basket. Stowell’s team was also excellent at free throw shooting


The improvement and multiple defenses played by teams in all levels of basketball have contributed greatly to making the long possession less effective. When defense in basketball was strictly man to man it was not as hard to get an opening and a good shot by a star player. Now with much better team defenses including a variety of zones it is much tougher. And the offense can no longer wear down a defense with a series of passes and cuts. Shot clocks have taken care of that. Twenty four or thirty-five seconds is not too long to play tough defense.


All this adds up to why getting early shots with as many fast breaks and mismatches is the key. Of course a coach can preach all this and hope his players instincts can take over. If they don’t hit the shots it doesn’t matter when they take them in the end.